Investment sales momentum builds despite ongoing volatility

Beneath ongoing economic uncertainty, contract activity and investor demand offer a glimpse of where the commercial real estate investment sales market is headed next.

Investment sales volume continued to gain momentum in the second quarter of 2026, though the recovery has been anything but linear. Ten-year Treasury yields climbed above 4.9%, geopolitical uncertainty remained elevated, and market participants continued to navigate a shifting economic backdrop. Yet despite those headwinds, investors have remained active and capital continues to find opportunities.

Nationally, commercial real estate investment sales totaled $233.6 billion in the first half of 2026, up 14.7% from $203.7 billion during the same period in 2025 and marking the strongest first-half performance since 2022. The year began with particularly strong activity, as first-quarter volume reached $120 billion, a 25.5% year-over-year increase and the highest Q1 total in four years. While second-quarter volume moderated to $113.6 billion, it still represented a 5.2% increase over the prior year.

U.S. commercial real estate sales volume by quarter, 2016–2026

Note: Includes office, retail, multifamily, and land sales
Sources: Avison Young Market Intelligence, MSCI

At its current pace, transaction volume across the U.S. is expected to reach approximately $467 billion by the end of the year. However, historical trends and Avison Young's forecasting models predict total 2026 investment sales volume could finish closer to $545–$555 billion, supported by improving sentiment around the future path of interest rates.

New York City nears long-term transaction average

The story is even stronger in New York City.

Based on first-half activity alone, annualized sales volume is projected to reach nearly $22.9 billion, already 23% above 2025 levels. Just as notable, New York City is approaching its 10-year average transaction volume of approximately $23.4 billion, a benchmark that includes some of the market's most active years between 2016 and 2019.

New York City dollar volume and number of sales, 2009–2026

Sources: Avison Young Technologies, CoStar, RCA

Why transaction volume only tells part of the story

While transaction volume provides important context, it’s ultimately a lagging indicator. Most deals closing today were negotiated months ago, often reflecting market sentiment from six to nine months earlier. With a typical transaction requiring a month of negotiation followed by four to five months to close, deals recorded in second-quarter statistics often originated under very different market conditions.

To understand where the market is truly headed, it's important to focus on what's happening now. The most revealing indicator is contract activity. Are buyers confident enough to execute? Are sellers willing to engage? Is capital available to support transactions? Those questions provide a more immediate read on market sentiment than closed-sale statistics alone.

Contract activity signals market direction

Across Avison Young's Tri-State investment sales platform, activity points to continued momentum. As of the first week in September, the team has completed 37 transactions totaling more than $621 million, with another 22 transactions in contract representing approximately $441 million in volume. In addition, 22 assignments are currently out for signature, representing an additional $642 million. Taken together, the pipeline indicates the market remains active and positions the team for one of its strongest years on record.

Perhaps most encouraging is the pace of activity during what is traditionally a slower period of the year. During July and August alone, the team signed 11 contracts. If that pace continues through September, third-quarter contract volume would exceed that of the second quarter despite ongoing market volatility and the typically quieter summer season.

business professionals having a meeting about the U.S. investment sales commercial real estate market in a modern glass-walled conference room in a New York City office building

Capital is still competing for quality assets

The strength of today's buyer pool is evident across markets and asset classes. Throughout the U.S., Avison Young continues to see meaningful competition for well-positioned opportunities. A retail center in Alexandria, Virginia, attracted multiple bidders before ultimately trading earlier this year. In suburban Atlanta, a recent listing generated more than 100 confidentiality agreements and over a dozen offers. Newly developed multifamily properties in Los Angeles saw similarly strong interest.

While these transactions differ significantly by geography and asset type, the common thread is clear: investors are actively pursuing opportunities, liquidity has improved, and capital is moving for assets that offer compelling fundamentals and a clear path to value creation even as uncertainty persists.

Resilience continues to define the market

"At this point, most of our clients have intellectually accepted the prolonged volatility, but many can still be reactive when the unplanned or unexpected happens within their own transactions. The volatility isn't going away anytime soon, and we can transact through it."

Marion Jones

Principal, Executive Managing Director of U.S. Capital Markets

New York City, New York

Marion Jones, Principal and Executive Managing Director of U.S. Capital Markets, noted, "At this point, most of our clients have intellectually accepted the prolonged volatility, but many can still be reactive when the unplanned or unexpected happens within their own transactions. The volatility isn't going away anytime soon, and we can transact through it."

The market may not have the clarity investors would prefer, but it continues to demonstrate something equally important: resilience. Buyers, sellers, and lenders are adapting to a more volatile environment, and transactions are moving forward as confidence gradually returns.

Reach out for more information.

James Nelson

Principal, Head of U.S. Investment Sales

New York City

Capital Markets Group, Investment Sales
Contact

Investment sales momentum builds despite ongoing volatility Beneath ongoing economic uncertainty, contract activity and investor demand offer a glimpse of where the commercial real estate investment sales market is headed next.