A tale of two recoveries: Northern Virginia’s submarkets split post-pandemic

Line chart tracking Northern Virginia office leasing activity relative to pre-COVID six-month averages from 2020 through H1 2026. Leasing activity declined sharply across all submarkets during the pandemic and recovered unevenly. Route 28 North and South experienced dramatic surges in 2021 and 2023, reaching nearly 180% above baseline before dropping back to -39% by H1 2026. RB Corridor showed the strongest recovery, ending at -19%, followed by Northern Virginia overall at -23%, Springfield at -25%, Toll Road at -30%, Tysons and Route 28 at -39%, and Old Town at -40%.
  • The pandemic reshaped Northern Virginia’s submarkets, and the region has been navigating a period of adjustment and recovery in the years since. Leasing activity across Northern Virginia cratered in 2020–2021, and while a broad recovery followed, it's been anything but uniform: some submarkets clawed their way back toward pre-COVID norms, while others have settled into a "new normal" well below baseline.
  • Route 28 North and South is the exception that proves the rule. The submarket spiked dramatically above baseline in both 2021 and again in 2023, reaching nearly 180% above pre-COVID levels at its peak, almost certainly the result of a handful of outsized lease transactions rather than sustained demand. But those spikes proved unsustainable: Route 28 has since given back nearly all of that gain, falling to -39% by H1 2026, right alongside the market's weakest performers. 
  • RB Corridor has emerged as Northern Virginia's relative bright spots, recovering closer to baseline and even pushing into positive territory at points in 2024 and 2025. Springfield and Toll Road, by contrast, have lagged the whole way through, ending H1 2026 near -39% and -25%, respectively.

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