Forecasting rent growth in Raleigh-Durham’s medical outpatient market

– Historically, asking rents for medical outpatient buildings in Raleigh-Durham have risen at an average annual rate of 4.1%. If this trajectory continues, average asking rents will reach $38.17 per square foot by Q2 2027.

– A more aggressive growth scenario is also possible. Should return-to-office (RTO) initiatives continue to accelerate while new medical outpatient development remains limited, rents could increase at a 7% annual pace, pushing rates as high as $40.04 by year-end 2027.

– Conversely, much of the existing medical outpatient inventory is aging, with the average building age now approaching 23 years old. If this factor slows absorption and weakens demand, growth could decelerate to just 1% annually. In this scenario, asking rents would rise only marginally, reaching $34.66 by Q4 2027, less than a dollar higher than Q2 2025 levels.