Forecasting the Charleston industrial market’s path to a healthy vacancy

Vacancy rate and net absorption since 2006, and projected absorption for years to come.
  • The current vacancy rate for the Charleston industrial market is 19.8%. This high rate is largely due to a significant influx of new deliveries. Since 2023, over 15 million square feet (msf) of industrial product has been added to the market, driving the vacancy rate from 6.9% in 2023 to nearly 20% today.
  • Over the past 20 years, Charleston has averaged roughly 1.5 msf of net absorption each year. Charleston had a strong three-year stretch from 2021 from 2023,  with over 5 msf absorbed in each of those years. This was offset by the substantial amount of square footage entering the market. How many years would it take for the vacancy rate to return to roughly 5%? An analysis using three different rates of absorption (1, 2, and 3 msf) shows the timelines required for Charleston to return to a healthy vacancy.
  • At 1 msf of net absorption per year, Charleston would hit the target vacancy rate of 5% in 2036. With 2 msf of absorption, the target vacancy rate would be reached in 2031. At 3 msf of absorption the target vacancy rate could be reached in 2029. With development expected to slow, and Charleston remaining an attractive market due to its proximity to the port and transit outlets such as I-95, expect to see the market trend towards a healthier future.

February 25, 2025

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