- Between 2018-2022, new multifamily building filings in New York City totaled roughly 26,000-40,000 proposed units annually before declining sharply following the expiration of 421-a in 2022. Although development activity has since recovered, the housing pipeline lost during the 2022-2024 gap period is already embedded in future deliveries and is expected to contribute to a near-term supply shortfall.
- Given ground-up multifamily development typically takes two to four years to deliver, the lost 2022–2024 pipeline cannot be rebuilt quickly enough to prevent a near term supply gap. Additionally, the construction-wage requirements attached to 485-x for projects of 100+ units has fuelled an uptick in filings at exactly 99 units or less, suggesting the rebound will translate in a more muted recovery than before.
- For investors, the development pipeline recovery isn’t necessarily the headline trend to keep an eye on, but rather that the gap in supply resulting from the slowdown will support tighter supply, elevated occupancy, rent growth and strong asset performance.
Looking past the recovery: Opportunity lies in what wasn’t built in NYC’s multifamily market
Proposed units in new building filings and units under construction in New York City
June 11, 2026
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