Predictions vs. reality: Where 2025 U.S. retail trends align and diverge
The National Retail Federation’s 2025 predictions—emphasizing AI/tech integration, the growing importance of health and wellness for U.S. consumers, and rising demand for more personalized shopping experiences—aligned early with Q1 sales growth in categories like non-store and online retailers (+4.2%), health and personal care (+4.3%), and furniture and home furnishing (+4.9%).
Slower or negative growth in segments like electronics and appliances (-1.9%) and sporting goods/hobby/bookstores (-2.5%) may reflect lagging transformation at the storefront level, rather than waning category interest overall.
The data indicates that certain physical retail formats in the hobby, electronics, and appliance sectors are struggling to keep up. Online retail has posed significant challenges for these stores. As a result, chains such as JoAnn Fabrics, Party City, and Best Buy have closed some locations or reduced their overall footprint to adapt to the changing consumer preference for online shopping in these categories.
