Office employment and job posting data paint different complexions on the U.S. economy. Which is more telling?

  • Employment in offices reached a record high in June 2023, increasing by 6.5% since March 2020,  while office job postings have dipped by 21.1%. Overall, office job postings have decreased by 34.3% from the post-COVID high in April 2022, whereas office employment actually increased by 2.3%. 
  • Job postings are best viewed as a forward indicator of future employment and a current indicator of office demand trends as employers continue to navigate competitive labor market conditions, increasing automation efforts and profitability concerns.  
  • This job posting data is closely aligned with office leasing activity, which has posted a strong 68.0% correlation since Q1 2020—versus office employment at a 44.8% correlation—and declined by 38.2% from Q1 2020 to Q2 2023. This means that office job postings are currently the more telling metric when it comes to real estate conditions.

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