2022 Q2 U.S. industrial market overview
The U.S. industrial market has grown significantly over the last decade, fueled by development activity since 2016-17. As aggregate vacancy continues to decline, having a pipeline of new space will provide further leasing & investment options. While construction completions were down slightly over the first quarter, future deliveries will offset that decline.
Demand maintained its pace in the second quarter, only slightly down from the prior period, but as a percentage of total inventory – relatively unchanged. With recessionary fears beginning to manifest, and supply chain disruptions not fully resolved, future leasing activity may experience waves of short-term caution, despite needs for new, efficient space.
Average NNN asking rents
As vacancy and leasing fundamentals continue to tighten, rents continue to spike amidst persistent scarcity of leasable space. Increases in rents accelerated significantly in the second quarter, with immediate pricing losing some transparency in a fast-moving leasing market.
Groundbreakings accelerated in the second quarter, and space currently under development now represents 5.2% of total U.S. industrial inventory. While some of this new activity might be seasonal, constraints around the availability of construction materials continue to push lead times back.
Dropping 30 basis points over the prior period, continued strong leasing activity pushed aggregate U.S. vacancy to a new historical low in the first quarter. Despite elevated levels of new development, vacancy is now 90 basis points below 2018, the low point from the most recent cycle.
Early 2022 industrial & logistics investment volumes outpaced the same period in 2021 by 47.4%, and were only 7.0% lower than 2020. While increases in interest rates are now beginning to create some go-forward cautiousness with investors, leasing market fundamentals and asset stability still make the sector attractive relative to others.
Local 2022 industrial market reports
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Additional thought capital from Avison Young